Passenger and Freight Traffic on Ferries to fall in the next 12 months

20 Dec 2019

Ferry Passenger and Freight Traffic to fall by 3% over the coming year

IRN Research’s new Ferrystat Seasonal and Forecast Data report and the new Freightstat Seasonal and Forecast Data report both predict a 3% fall in ferry volumes over the coming 12 months (December 2019-November 2020).

The trends across the main ferry routes will vary, with passenger volumes across the UK-Continental sea routes expected to fall by 5%, but volumes will remain largely flat across the UK-Ireland and Domestic routes. The best performing ferry route in terms of passenger numbers will be those in Scotland and the worst performing those on the short sea.

In terms of freight business, while UK-Ireland traffic is expected to rise  by 3%, volumes on the short sea route (-6%) and Western Channel routes (-4%) are expected to fall.

IRN forecasts are based on the concepts and algorithms used in the two leading seasonal adjustment methods:

  • TRAMO/SEATS – developed by the Bank of Spain
  • X-12ARIMA/X13 ARIMA SEATS – developed at the U.S. Census Bureau.

The Ferrystat Seasonal and Forecast data report  

The Ferrystat Seasonal and Forecast data report (and associated spreadsheet) shows seasonally adjusted data for the main ferry routes based on the monthly figures generated by IRN’s monthly Ferrystat report. Data is shown for passengers, cars and coaches for the UK-Continental (Short sea, North Sea and Western Channel), UK-Ireland (Northern, Central and Southern) and Domestic (Channel Islands, Isle of Man, Isle of Wight, Scotland) routes. Data tables are supported by Figures showing the reported, seasonally adjusted and trend data. The report also shows forecasts for passengers, cars and coaches for the above routes for the coming 12 months on a monthly basis, with data tables supported by Figure showing the forecast mid-estimates and the upper and lower bounds of the forecasts.

The report (pp110) is published quarterly: January (data to December), May (data to April), July (data to June) and October (data to September). A single issue December 2019 report  (data to November 2019) has now been published which would be included in a 2020 annual subscription or can be purchased as a standalone report.

Annual subscription (4 quarters): £500 (£600 inc VAT)

Single Quarter Report £150 (£180 inc VAT)

The Ferrystat Seasonal and Forecast data report  

The Freightstat Seasonal and Forecast Data report (and associated spreadsheet) shows seasonally adjusted total freight data for the main ferry routes based on the monthly figures generated by IRN’s monthyl Freightstat report. Data is shown for total freight units for the UK-Continental (Short sea and Western Channel) and UK-Ireland (Northern, Central and Southern). Data tables are supported by Figures showing the reported, seasonally adjusted and trend data. The report also shows forecasts for freight for the above routes for the coming 12 months on a monthly basis, with data tables supported by Figure showing the forecast mid-estimates and the upper and lower bounds of the forecasts.

The report (pp18) is published quarterly: January (data to December), May (data to April), July (data to June) and October (data to September).A single issue December 2019 report  (data to November 2019) has now been published which would be included in a 2020 annual subscription or can be purchased as a standalone report.

 

Purchase the reports

Share

IRN Team

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *